ERIC Votes … Election Predictions, Results and Analysis

Thanks to 270 to win for customizable map.

Canada’s first pandemic general election at either the federal or provincial level is unlikely to precipitate a run to the polls with other governments in a minority government situation, at last count a total of 4 provincial and 1 national.  For the most part incumbents in Canada have received strong reviews for the handling the pandemic, the situation essentially being no different in New Brunswick.  However this will not translate to a landslide at the polls, with voting patterns in New Brunswick expected to show only very modest, as opposed to significant changes.

On the other hand, however, New Brunswick has had no less than several successive streaks of one term majority governments, going back to 2006.  The 2018 election was slightly different in that vote distribution gave the PCs a slight edge in seats, although they had a 7 point deficit in the popular vote.  Aided by the People’s Alliance Party, they were able to form a government which, with a few rough spots, was largely received well enough by the electorate such that recent polling has shown no significant desire to change helmsmen. 

The polling also shows, though, that Liberal support, while down from 2018, has remained stable at around 30% and very concentrated in the northern and eastern, more francophone parts of the province where they retained support in 2018.  The noted collapse in People’s Alliance support to roughly one half of where it was in 2018 will likely by itself aid the PCs in getting a small majority overall.  The Greens might have benefited from the decrease in Liberal support elsewhere, although it remains to be seen if they are able to make additional breakthroughs, especially around the Fredericton area where they are represented federally by a Green Member of Parliament.  The NDP have largely polled at the same level as 2018, which is likely to result in no seats and little impact on the overall result.

The Liberals were able to hold the PCs to a minority in part by retaining one seat a piece in Fredericton and St. John and holding their own in Moncton.  The model is showing that those seats will now likely turn PC blue, in addition to another possible PC pickup in Moncton, The one riding won by a PC in 2018 which will likely flip back to the Liberals is Shippigan-Lameque-Miscou at the top right corner of the map, this was held by former Deputy Premier Robert Gauvin, who in protest of the Higgs government’s nighttime closure of 6 ERs, crossed the floor to the Liberals and is now running in Shediac Bay-Dieppe.

The People’s Alliance is expected to lose two out of three ridings. The Miramichi riding will likely see Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers elected over PA incumbent Michelle Conroy (it is worth noting that the Liberal Leader is the same Kevin Vickers who as House of Commons Sergeant at Arms in 2014 helped end a shooting episode at Parliament Hill, receiving a Star of Courage medal as a result.)  The other expected loss is that of Fredericton York to the PCs.

The main thing to note though is that after numerous provincial elections where voting patterns have not always followed a tight English-PC-South-Southwest and French-Liberal-North-East narrative (think of election victories by PC Premiers Hatfield and Lord where frequently did well in the northern part of the province, and even in drought elections like 1995 half the PC caucus was from northern New Brunswick), those voting patterns appear to be falling back to where federal lines have remained largely consistent (outside of clean sweep elections) with respect to blue and red on the map.  And going forward, if this pattern holds, it may very well be that not only does New Brunswick politics continue to remain interesting with no long term governments, but also that final election results will likely turn on only a handful of ridings and relatively small margins therein, and in most other ridings winning the nomination end up being effectively more consequential to winning the general election.

Wisconsin 7th Congressional District … Tom Tiffany, Republican 67% Tricia Zinker, Democrat 31% … Republican hold

California 25th Congressional District … Mike Garcia, Republican 50.2% … Christy Smith, Democratic 49.8% … Republican gain

Turnout anticipated to be low … Biden percentage of vote to range between very high 40s to mid to high 60s as likely to continue unchallenged as front runner … nation remains preoccupied with pandemic … primary’s significance if nothing else will serve as barometer of Biden’s continued strength

Probably lower turnout … perhaps less participation older pro-Biden demographic but still basically 2 to 1 margin of victory for Biden in each state … Arizona might be closest margin with stronger showing with Sanders amongst Hispanic population … Illinois and Florida stronger Biden

Vice-President Joe Biden is set to expand his lead a week after Super Tuesday with strong wins in the three ‘M’ states – Mississippi, Missouri and perhaps most notably, Michigan.

It will be more competitive in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington, where Sanders might earn 40% plus of the vote. Momentum in the race towards Biden effectively flips these states away from Sanders, with Washington being the one state Sanders may still carry (narrowly).

At this point projecting a complete Biden sweep including Democrats abroad.

Also California 25th Congressional District holds jungle primary today for former U.S. Representative Katie Hill (D). It is anticipated that none of the candidates will receive 50% forcing a May 12th runoff … likely to be between Steve Knight (R) and Christy Smith (D).

The Super Tuesday Primary involving 14 states plus American Samoa will be one for the history books on the Democratic side as the contest narrows down to a fight between the progressive (Sanders) and moderate (Biden) wings after a largely unprecedented dropout of three candidates – Steyer, Klobuchar and Buttigieg since Saturday’s South Carolina primary and the endorsement of Biden from the latter two mentioned.

This means both that there are few to none opinion polls extant that will reflect these developments … it also means that a good portion of votes will not end up going to active contenders given the number of early votes prior to these developments … most states in question lack any provision to withdraw an early vote for someone no longer in the running. If the Democratic convention in July becomes contested, this will likely be a contributing factor.

For the final four active campaigns, here are their prospects as I see them …

Michael Bloomberg … his strategy was to sit the early primaries out and focus on a mass advertising campaign for Super Tuesday. This strategy will likely have limited success given Biden’s strong South Carolina win and the latter’s endorsements by Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Some endorsements, such as Rep. Clyburn’s in South Carolina matter and these new developments create the momentum of Biden being the ‘stop Bernie’ candidate. This effectively puts a ceiling on Bloomberg’s support, not to mention two debate performances on his part that did little to generate additional support. As Andrew Yang pointed out, Bloomberg’s tactical error was to sit out the race in South Carolina, where he missed the ‘stop Bernie’ train. At this point his remaining in the race effectively gives Texas, a winnable state for Biden, to Bernie, if not the nomination overall.

Senator Warren appears to be stuck in the high single digits or a few points higher and, similar to Bloomberg paring Biden back, she might effectively do the same to Bernie, perhaps putting Virginia in Biden’s camp. At this point it appears doubtful that she will win her home state of Massachusetts, effectively numbering the days of her campaign. If she drops out before Bloomberg, that would probably help Bernie more.

Senator Sanders is expected to have a decent night, winning most of the states outside of the South, even if he doesn’t match his level of support 4 years ago. His levels of support in the South are expected to remain comparable to where they were 4 years previous, which will net him Texas and run a strong second everywhere else in the region except Alabama. Outside the South while he is expected to sweep every state, his support levels will likely be lower due to Warren and the countless early votes for candidates who have since dropped out. While I do not try to break out the specific delegate count, it is likely that after tonight, thanks to California and Texas, that he will have a strong, but not insurmountable lead of around 200 delegates.

Which brings us to Biden, who in the last 72 hours has had more good fortune compacted in those 3 days than any other Presidential contender I can remember. With clear momentum from Buttigieg and Klobuchar, and underlying strength in the African American electorate, it is likely that he will outperform all current opinion polls, even if not all of Klobuchar’s and Buttigieg’s supporters follow their lead. Given however the strength of Sanders in the Latin American population and those states outside the South, plus Bloomberg still remaining in the race, the best potential areas for Biden remain in the South.

It may be too early in the end to make final delegate predictions, however the race between Biden and Bernie may cone down to who drops out first – Warren or Bloomberg. On one hand there has been some palpable animosity between Warren and Sanders, but Warren has a much harder case to make for winnability if she can’t carry her home state of Massachusetts. On the other hand, Bloomberg may not get the results he wants tonight, but he certainly has no lack of resources to help him keep going.