Miramichi-Neguac – Liberal hold

Southwest Miramichi – Bay du Vin – likely PC hold due to collapse in support People’s Party which polled strong in 2020, but with an outside chance for Liberal pickup

Incumbent Filemon Vela Jr., D, vacated the seat at the end of March to take a position at a lobbying firm. This area in Texas has been trending more Republican, and Joe Biden carried this congressional seat in the presidential vote by less than 5 points. A decade earlier, both Democratic presidential and congressional candidates routinely carried this area by a 60-40 margin, but this significantly narrowed in 2020 to a smaller 14 point win for Vela and smaller still for Biden, south Texas being one of the more noted areas in the country where Donald Trump grew his support considerably over 2016.

Mayra Flores is representing the Republicans, and Dan Sanchez the Democrats. However this is a nonpartisan blanket primary where two other candidates, Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana Cantu-Cabrera are also on the ballot, raising the possibility that if no candidate wins a majority of votes, it will go to a runoff prior to the November midterms.

Regardless of a runoff or not, it is expected that Mayra Flores will pick up this currently constituted seat for the Republicans. She is also the designated November Republican nominee against Democrat Vincente Gonzalez, who currently represents the 15th congressional district. However the November race will be fought on reconstituted lines widely considered to be more favourable to Democratic chances.

In the meantime, national Democrats have largely sat out this race, while the Republicans have significantly outraised their Democratic rivals by what CNN reported was a 20 to 1 margin.

Overall results anticipated to be PCs 78 and 38.15% of vote; NDP 33 and 23.89% of vote; L 12 and 26.78% of vote; Green 1 seat and 7.35% of vote, others 0 seats and 3.83% of vote

Despite winning more votes than the NDP, the Liberals end up with less seats due to the fact that they are the clear second place party in the 905, but they win no seats there

The PCs don’t bleed a lot of support to the more right-wing New Blue and Ontario parties, which are shut out of the legislature; they pick up several seats in Brampton, Essex and Oshawa, with an outside chance of gaining Niagara Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and St. Catharines, adding to the narrative of the PCs winning the blue collar, union vote.

The Liberals gain in Toronto and Kingston; retain Glengarry-Prescott-Russell due to a floor crossing, they have an outside chance of winning more seats in downtown Toronto such as Toronto Centre, Spadina-Fort York, University-Rosedale and Don Valley North; leader Steven Del Duca will ultimately fail to win Vaughan-Woodbridge, and coupled with a low showing in seats, it may cast his future leadership in doubt

The NDP are primarily on the defensive, with likely losses in Brampton, Essex, Oshawa and Toronto. The Welland Canal ridings of Niagara Centre and St. Catharines are anticipated to be closely fought, as well as a vote split in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, although currently they are projected to retain those three ridings. Andrea Horwath, after her 4th try for the Premier’s chair, may be replaced prior to the next election expected in 2026.

The Greens are expected to retain Guelph for leader Mike Schreiner, who had a very strong performance in the leaders’ debates. Although their popular vote total is expected to trend up, it will likely not translate into any additional seats. Parry Sound-Muskoka is likely to be the next closely fought riding for the Greens, who historically do very well there, (benefiting also from the lack of a Liberal candidate on the ballot) but the riding’s long history of PC wins gives them the slight edge on holding the riding.

Originally I was going to post a picture of Niagara Falls for this narrative but the falls’ turbulence really does not symbolize an election where the vast majority of ridings are retained by their respective parties. Even if there are raging undercurrents beneath the surface, (or a lot more turbulence in Ottawa, for that matter) this election is on the surface more like a tranquil lake in cottage country on a summer’s day. While about 3 times as many races will be closely fought, only 9 ridings out of 124 are actually projected to change hands (changing hands as defined by the results of the last vote – whether a general election or by-election, as opposed to floor crossings). Premier Doug Ford has, at least according to polling, not always commanded the affections of Ontario voters, but in a post-pandemic era where residents want some semblance of normalcy, it appears that a strong plurality are ready to return the Ford PCs for a second term, perhaps grudgingly giving them a passing grade in navigating through more turbulent waters since the last election.

Republican Connie Conway expected to win 60% + of vote over Democrat Lourin Hubbard on June 7th vote. Special election called after the resignation of Devin Nunes, R on January 1, 2022. Nonpartisan blanket primary was held April 5th.

Non-sectarian parties make clear gains, SF maintains support and DUP continues decline

Sinn Fein – 28 Seats +1 from 2017

Alliance – 18 Seats +10

UUP – 16 Seats +6

SDLP – 10 Seats -2

DUP – 9 Seats -19

TUV – 4 Seats +3

Green – 2 Seats no change

People Before Profit 1 Seat, no change

Two Unionist Independents +1

Overall Totals – Republican/Nationalists 38 down 1 seat

Loyalist/Unionist – 31 … down 8 seats

Non-Sectarian – 21 … up 9 seats

• Northern Ireland out of Canada, the UK and the US is one of the more complicated and layered jurisdictions when it comes to voting … as far as I’m concerned only historical Louisiana and current Newfoundland voting patterns show similar levels of complexity or unpredictability
• Brexit has complicated the political calculus for Northern Ireland with the trilemma of no land or sea borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and the United Kingdom respectively as well as no UK participation in the European Single Market/European Union Customs Union; Northern Ireland did not vote for Brexit, predominant opposition came from Catholic and non-sectarian sections of the electorate … the soft border between Northern Ireland the and Republic of Ireland was a cornerstone of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 which is widely seen as having turned the page on the sectarian Troubles which afflicted the area in the three decades prior
• The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement provides for a sea border arrangement avoiding a hard land border on Ireland and allowing for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK customs union and internal market
• The Northern Ireland Assembly has the power after December 31, 2024 to either continue to terminate the arrangement
• Despite the backdrop of Brexit considerations, a number of non-sectarian issues such as affordability and health care have been the mainstay of the Sinn Fein campaign, with leader Michelle O’Neill likely to emerge as the largest party in the Assembly.  (I recall the PQ in Quebec in 1976 taking a similar tactic – the campaign was on good governance, not separatism, although to be clear the PQ never had any formal relationship with the FLQ, whereas SF has been commonly associated as being the political arm of the IRA). Sinn Fein has moved in a significantly different direction since unionists and SDLP supporters voted tactically to defeat then leader Gerry Adams in Belfast West in the 1992 UK election
• Northern Ireland leadership in a current state of suspension … strong likelihood that if O’Neil’s party does take the largest seats that unionists will not nominate a deputy leader per the terms of the Good Friday agreement, which may lead to direct rule from Westminster
• The DUP after a leadership crisis in the past several years will likely shrink significantly, but with the UUP and TUV picking up most of the slack
• The non-sectarian Alliance Party also slated to pick up support … overall non-sectarians will gain at the expense of unionists, possibly republicans … if they emerge as the second largest party per the terms of the party sharing agreement they could not nominate a deputy minister since they are ‘other’ as opposed to Unionist or Nationalist
• The overall picture is one of further instability in Stormont and uncertainty with respect to Northern Ireland’s future … if the unionists end up blocking O’Neill from taking office through refusal to nominate a deputy first minister, this may further intensify the momentum towards a border poll and possible reunification … paradoxically if O’Neill does become first minister and Northern Ireland continues to government under a more or less state of devolution, that would likely disincentivize any significant push towards a border poll/unification
• In recent years the DUP has steered more or less a course between the more moderate UUP and the more hardline TUV … their collapse may lead to a more divided unionist block with hardliners isolated, and the electorate overall ready to look more for compromise than a return to the troubles
• *** Predictions on basis of party seat won by constituency, not an individual candidate.  Since interim replacements are usually based on co-options as opposed to by-elections, only by-election predictions are made

Six months on the eve of Quebec’s 43^rd General Election and the governing Coalition d’Avenir Quebec continues to maintain it’s overall standing of support at around two fifths of the electorate.  The opposition remains divided, with no party consistently polling more than one fifth support.  The separatist Parti Quebecois, at one point one of the two main parties since the early 1970s, is in most polls around half their support in the 2018 election, which in turn was their lowest ever level of support in terms of popular vote since it’s founding in 1968.

The PQ has long been dominant in this section of the Monteregie region, essentially that part of Quebec lying mostly to the south or east of Montreal on south shore of the Saint Lawrence River, in addition to Vaudreuil.  For nearly the entirety of Marie-Victorin’s 41-year existence it has been held by PQ MNAs.  A portion of the riding was formerly in Taillon, which was held by none other than former Quebec PQ Premiers Rene Levesque and Pauline Marois.  In the 2018 election, Marie-Victorin was the only PQ win within the greater Montreal region.  The last MNA, Catherine Fournier, kept the riding by a mere 700 votes over the CAQ candidate, but later left the PQ and sat as an independent before resigning and winning the mayorship of Longueuil. 

The current standard bearer for the PQ is Pierre Nantel, who was formerly the NDP MP for Longueuil-St. Hubert between 2011-15, before losing the riding as the Green candidate in the election that later year.  Another noteworthy candidate is Martine Ouellette, for Climat Quebec, herself formerly the Bloc Quebecois leader and before that the PQ MNA for nearby Vachon, also a former PQ stronghold.  It is anticipated that while Ouellette may not win more than 10% of the vote, her name recognition is sufficient to draw votes away from Nantel since they are drawing off the same reserve of green, sovereigntist voters.

For the left-wing, sovereigntist Quebec Solidaire candidate Shophika Vaithyanathasarma and Liberal Émilie Nollet, the fight is more for second place as the plausible alternative to the CAQ.  The Liberals only held the riding during a brief period of time after a 1984 by-election, losing it again to the PQ in 1985 in what was otherwise a Liberal landslide.  All indications are that QS is holding their own in opinion polling, and will likely retain a comparable vote percentage as in 2018.  The Liberals may see a decline in vote share, mirroring their province-wide slide in opinion polling – in their view retaining their 2018 vote share may be the best possible result.

The big unknown is the surging Parti Conservateur, a right-wing federalist party opposed to a number of COVID-19 pandemic mandates.  Historically the reconstituted Conservateurs are a minor-factor in Longueuil elections, but with some provincial polling putting the party in a distant second place, the likelihood of significant vote gains seems to be high.  Contrary to most expectations, however, the Conservateurs have expanded support provincially while the CAQ has effectively retained their vote share, with the opposition parties experiencing more decline than the government.

Part of this could be explained that the popularity of the CAQ and it’s leader, Premier Legault, and their hold on swing voters.  Another factor is the fact that the previous Liberal-PQ alignment in Quebec politics spanning 1970 – 2018 concealed behind the question of federalism versus sovereignty a number of left-right alignments, that in the absence of an ideological debate, remained concealed until the alignment fell apart.  Therefore, the relative stability of CAQ support, and the relative decline of Liberal and PQ support especially, could be attributed to the resorting of political alignments away from the old federalist-separatist divide.  Another factor that might be just as significant if not more so might be the general malaise with pandemic measures fueling Conservateur support from all sides of the political spectrum

In any event, all indications are that the CAQ support, even if it moderately declines to 2018 levels in the riding, will be sufficient to propel CAQ candidate Shirley Dorismond to victory, with Conservateur Anna Casabonne having a good chance of outpolling everyone but the CAQ, PQ and QS candidates, which mirrors the province wide trend.

The bottom line is the ridings’s winner will benefit from voting splits of the opposition, in addition to the province wide trends, and if Nantel loses the former stronghold, it will be attributable to the far more likely PQ-QS-Ouellet split, and overall PQ decline, than any anticipated CAQ-Conservateur vote split.

A quick synopsis of the race:

After nearly 6 years in power, the Premier Heather Stefanson’s Manitoba PCs are running behind Wab Kinew’s NDP, but only in the single digits in most polls.  This suggests that the core PC vote remains essentially intact and any NDP opposition lead would not be insurmountable for the PCs in the next election.

The former Premier, Brian Pallister, represented Fort Whyte in the Winnipeg area and vacated the seat shortly after announcing his resignation as Premier last summer.

Fort Whyte was created out of 3 southwest Winnipeg ridings in time for the 1999 provincial election and is considered a safe PC riding, with the party holding the seat for the entirety of its existence to date.  It is a relatively well-off riding with nearly half the population holding university degrees, and an above average household income.  It also boasts a large and diverse immigrant population. 

The Manitoba Liberals generally perform better in this riding than in the province as a whole, in the last election almost outplacing the NDP for second place.  However, the PC margin of victory has seldom dipped below 20%, and each election they have successfully kept their overall share of the vote above 50%.

The Liberals have made a serious attempt to win the riding in recruiting a star candidate, former Blue Bomber and Grey Cup champion Willard Reeves (who also played in the National Football League). 

The PCs have as their own candidate another former Blue Bomber, Ibrahim “Obby” Kahn, now a local restauranteur.  The NDP have nominated Trudy Schroeder, former Executive Director of the Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra, with the Greens’ Nicolas Geddert and a staunchly anti-pandemic mandate independent, Patrick Allard, the last two of whom are seen as unlikely to carry the riding.

Both the Liberals and PC candidacies has encountered some level of controversy – with the Liberals being asked by the Blue Bombers to stop selling merchandise with a “W” logo, while representing the first letter of the candidate’s name also seen as bearing a resemblance to the club’s logo.  With Mr. Kahn the Liberals questioned $500,000 awarded to Mr. Kahn’s Good Local online marketplace venture as part of a $1.5 million grant aimed at promoting shop local efforts, in noting that other businesses did not get any grant money.  The PC Government responded that this was just one of several financial programs aimed at helping small businesses during the recent pandemic.

The main issues in the election are reportedly the pandemic response, health care, housing and social services. 

While the NDP may hold an overall polling lead in the Winnipeg area, and Schroeder is in part urging voters to back her candidacy as supporting the party most likely to replace the PC government, the Liberals undoubtedly have a high-profile candidate and historically stronger support levels in the area that makes them significant factors in the overall vote. 

It will likely come down to the two former Blue Bombers making a play for the riding, with the historical voting trend and the still significant province-wide levels of support for the government making it more unlikely that the PCs lose in today’s vote, and with Mr. Kahn taking a seat in the provincial legislature alongside another blue team.  If it does go the other way, however, it could portend a larger defeat for the government in the next general election than what provincial polling currently suggests.

First order of business – “la biche” refers to “elk” in French, as in “Lake of the Elk”.

Today’s by-election was precipitated by the resignation of the previous MLA, Laila Goodridge, who successfully contested the federal riding of Fort McMurray – Cold Lake for the Conservative Party in last year’s election.

Despite rising oil prices and an end to a significant number of pandemic measures, Premier Jason Kenney remains unpopular, not only trailing the NDP by double digits in most polls province wide for more than the past year, but also languishes in support amongst the rank and file of his United Conservative Party.  Two MLAs were ejected last year from caucus due to criticism on their part of Kenney’s COVID-19 response.  On April 9^th, Premier Kenney is to face a party leadership review in Red Deer.  Most observes believe that less than 70% could potentially spell trouble for the Premier’s continued leadership, while less than 50% would automatically end his leadership of the party.

This makes the vote in Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche all the more interesting, since his one-time and now current political rival Brian Jean has been selected to carry the UCP banner, and has openly called for Kenney to step aside.  While both served in the Conservative caucus of Stephen Harper in Ottawa, they have been rivals since at least the formation of the UCP back in 2017.  Kenney was previously the Alberta PC leader, and Jean the leader of the more populist, rural-base Wildrose Political Association.  The split of the right-of-center vote contributed to an unprecedented NDP victory in the previous 2015 election, ending 44 years of PC governments, and a merger was seen as the best way forward to end any prospect of an NDP dynasty. 

Both men have contrasting styles reflective of the parties they previously led prior to the merger.  Premier Kenney is seen as having a more business-friendly style crafted for an urban electorate, and was previously credited as federal Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism for helping forge critical inroads in the Greater Toronto Area for the Conservatives to help solidify their 2011 majority win.  Jean’s style is seen as more rural-based and populist, although both have been able to convey messages that speak to a wider electorate at large.

The resulting 2017 leadership campaign of the then newly minted UCP was controversial as it was acrimonious. While Kenney emerged victorious, accusations of duplicity in allegedly supporting a third candidate who was in turn accused of running solely to undermine Jean, (not legitimately contending the leadership in his own right) caused reverberations right down to the grass roots level of the party.  Some believe this contributed to Kenney never truly commanding the loyalty and respect of the entire UCP, despite his 2019 win. Jean, citing personal reasons including the destruction of his home in the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, did not remain in caucus long after Kenney’s election as leader and left prior to the 2019 election.  When commodity prices tumbled and the pandemic materialized, Kenney’s popularity took a considerable hit, with no poll after the middle of 2021 showing a UCP lead, and opposition to his leadership becoming more open within his party.

Goodridge’s election as MP last fall provided Jean with an opening to run as MLA and increase his presence as he openly calls for Kenney’s ouster as leader.  While intraparty leadership feuds in Canada have often spilled out into the open, this instance is more unusual in that Kenney had pledged to sign the nomination papers of whomever won the UCP nomination in the riding regardless of loyalty to his leadership. Ultimately he ended up allowing the candidacy of not only someone openly hostile to his leadership, but someone who in the eyes of party members might make Kenney’s replacement more politically palatable as a key replacement prospect.  A federal equivalent might be comparable to an instance of Joe Clark allowing an openly hostile Brian Mulroney to contest Joliette back in 1981, (Mulroney declined to openly call for Clark’s resignation and did not run for parliament prior to his election as leader in 1983) or another fabled feud such as Chretien-Martin; Turner-Chretien or Diefenbaker-Camp.  It does stretch the imagination to see where an incumbent party leader wouldn’t make a more direct attempt to protect themselves against a significant rival.

In any event, few observers expect to see the UCP lose Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche today, which has elected right-of-center candidates since 1971 (the area as constituted in several different constituencies).  Interestingly the riding did return Liberal MLAs during a significant part of the previous 36-year Social Credit dynasty (prior to the PC dynasty), as one of the few parts of the province not to elect an MLA on the government side. 

NDP candidate Ariana Mancini is considered to be the main rival in the unlikely event of an upset; an even more unlikely chance would be Wildrose Independence leader Paul Hinman, also contesting the riding.  The Alberta and Liberal parties are also both fielding candidates as well as the Alberta Independence, Alberta Advantage parties in addition to one independent.

Note: Article previously mentioned that Social Credit dynasty was 31 years … 1971 – 1935 = 36 years.