This is my first attempt at predicting the upcoming election … some fine tuning and revisions are probably in order for the duration of the campaign … right off the bat I am thinking about revising some of my predictions around York Region in Ontario and the Lac St. Jean region in Quebec – i.e. the Conservatives and Liberals might swap colours on the map.

I am trying to keep a colour scheme such that the sea-green Bloc seats can be distinguished from the bluer Conservative ones.

At this point, trying to build into my model the potential fall out over the brownface incidents, I am showing:

Liberal – 32.1% and 145 Seats

Conservative – 36% and 144 Seats

NDP – 14% and 25 Seats

Bloc – 5.1% (22.3% in Quebec) and 20 Seats

Green – 9% and 3 Seats

People’s Party of Canada – 2.3% and 1 Seat (Bernier’s)

Other – 1.2% and 1 Seat (Jody Wilson-Raybould)