Amidst a backdrop of multiple failed attempts to pass a Brexit deal on the part of Theresa May’s Conservative government, Tory support has dropped precipitously in the run up to a UK EU Parliament vote, (which wasn’t even slated to occur had Brexit been realized by this point).  Much of that support has gone to the Brexit Party, which led by former UKIP Leader Nigel Farage, is set to make the most gains and with the Liberal Democrats making a modest recovery in support.  The Labour Party, having largely failed to capitalize on sagging Tory fortunes, will seek to limit losses, while the smaller parties such as the Scottish Nationalists, Greens and Plaid Cymru are largely expected to have steady levels of support.

EU Parliament elections in Europe are more challenging to model since seat distribution is determined not by the traditional first-past-the-post system but instead with 12 multi-member constituencies where a total of 73 Members of European Parliament (MEPs) are elected by a more complex highest-of-averages D’Hondt method of computation in each constituency.  Coupled with the fact that historical polling data is more limited for EU Parliamentary elections and the multimember constituency method is more recent, beginning in 1999, it is not as straightforward to anticipate which constituencies will reflect a given party’s support in terms of elected MEPs.  In using a map of counting areas for the last 2 EU Parliamentary elections plus a review of the statistics of where increases and decreases of national party support have figured in the constituency results, I have developed a rough approximation of where each of the main parties can expect to elected MEPs.  (see below)

The immediate impacts of the election will be hard to determine since there is a three day lag between the end of voting (May 23rd) and the announcement of the results (May 26th), and during that time the not insignificant occurrence of Prime Minister May’s resignation was announced after another failed attempt to get the UK Parliament to pass a Brexit deal.  However it is anticipated that the stark result in the EU Parliament elections might force the Conservatives into a survival mode, with a high probability that a hardline Brexiteer might succeed May in order to stave off a challenge from Farrage’s Brexit Party.  Historically EU elections have trended against the government of the day, with the end result that they are not always a portent of elections to come at Westminster.  Indeed, the Tories swept the EU elections in 1999 and 2004, only to lose to Labour in a UK general election shortly thereafter.  What makes this EU election particular noteworthy is the magnitude of the defeat of the party in power in Westminster, and how it might change the dynamics with the upcoming Conservative leadership election, both of which are unprecedented.  Conservatives are undoubtedly hoping that relatively poor track record of EU elections predicting the victor in the next national elections is the one precedent that holds.