Legault’s CAQ Likely to Fall Short of Outright Majority
CAQ – 31.34% – 59 seats
Liberals – 29.36% – 44 seats
PQ – 20.69% – 16 seats
QS – 16.37% – 6 seats
All others – 2.24% – 0 seats
For the first time in 52 years, Quebec appears poised to award electoral victory to a party other than the Liberals or Parti Quebecois (PQ). While the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), a right-leaning, moderately populist party has led public opinion polls for some months prior to the election campaign, it has fallen back during the campaign to the lower 30s, perhaps a point or two ahead of the incumbent Liberals. The PQ support has dropped to around one fifth of the electorate, with most of the gains going towards the fledgling centre-left, sovereigntist Quebec solidaire (QS). Given the longstanding tendency of Liberals to garner wide margins in non-francophone ridings, a near tie in the popular vote practically means that the Liberals, with less voting efficiency, will place second in the seat count.
This synopsis is a less narrative and briefer than usual, standing as a testament to the extra time spent fine tuning a riding-by-riding model that will see a large number of constituencies won with only a third of the vote or less, with margins of less than 5% in roughly 30 ridings. Since there are many ridings very closely contested with three-way (and in some instances four-way) splits, the potential range of seats won for each party is listed below at the level of support predicted above.
CAQ – 37 minimum – 59 likely – 70 maximum
Lib – 35 minimum – 44 likely – 55 maximum
PQ – 7 minimum – 16 likely – 24 maximum
QS – 4 minimum – 6 likely – 11 maximum
As the clear gainers in support, and as supported by my riding-by-riding analysis, neither the CAQ nor the QS are projected to lose any of the seats that they currently hold. Having gained the Quebec City riding of Louis Hebert in a by-election, this is potentially the most marginal of all the seats that they currently hold. The CAQ has as their base of support a large number of ridings outside of Montreal, in the predominantly agricultural, rural, francophone areas in the southern portion of the province. The CAQ also has strong levels of support in the suburban/exurban Laurentides region outside of Montreal, (where leader Francois Legault has a seat in L’Assomption), and strong pockets of support in the Quebec City region. They may not be able to achieve a critical Montreal breakthrough that would pave the way for a strong CAQ majority, however they expect to build on their strength in the Laurentides, Monteregie (south of Montreal), Quebec City and rural areas elsewhere.
The QS for their part has 4 riding strongholds in the eastern part of Montreal, and expect to do better in the Montreal region than elsewhere, although they do have long shot hopes of pickups in Sherbrooke, Rimouski and Taschereau (Quebec City). Spokesperson Manon Masse, who has spearheaded the 2018 campaign, represents Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, which although marginal in 2014 is expected to easily remain in QS hands this time around.
The strength of the provincial Liberal party in Quebec has traditionally rested in both the west end of Montreal and in the Ottawa River Valley, areas that are either more amenable to federalism or are non-francophone (non-francophone ridings being a subset of a larger number of pro-federalist ridings). The Liberals should also retain most of the ridings in Laval and eastern Montreal that they already hold. It is currently projected that incumbent Liberal Premier Philippe Couillard will retain Roberval, in the Lac St. Jean region of the province, and the Liberals will likely hang on to small pockets of support elsewhere in northern and rural Quebec.
The Liberals are likely to lose 10 seats (all to the CAQ) by a significant margin, ridings largely concentrated in the Mauricie and Quebec City Regions.
Champlain
Charlesbourg
Charlevoix – Cote de Beaupre
Chauveaux
Jean Lesage
La Prairie
Maskinonge
Montmorency
Portneuf
Vanier – Les Rivieres
Seven ridings that the Liberals currently hold (or else won in 2014) but are likely to lose, by between 3 and 10 percentage points, (again, all to the CAQ) consist of several ridings on the south shore – either in the Monteregie, Eastern Townships or Central Quebec (Beauce/Levis) regions.
Argenteuil
Beauce Sud
Bellechasse
Brome Missisquoi
Megantic
Richmond
Trois Rivieres
In addition, they are likely to lose the eastern Montreal constituency of Laurier-Dorion to Quebec Solidaire.
Finally, the truly marginal loses, by less than 3 points. Quebec Solidaire is projected to pick up the Maurice Richard riding (formerly known as Cremazie) by roughly half a percentage point. All other loses below are to the CAQ, broadly distributed throughout Quebec outside of Montreal.
Cote du Sud
Laviolette – St. Maurice (merger of 2 separate constituencies, both previously held by Liberals)
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Orford
Saint Francois
The Liberals are expected to barely retain 6 ridings, most of which are located either in northern Quebec or the Lac St. Jean or lower St. Lawrence river regions.
Abitibi-Est – likely to retain over CAQ, or more distantly, the PQ
Dubuc – likely to retain over CAQ, or more distantly, the PQ
Iles de la Madeline – likely to retain over PQ, the CAQ underperformed in this riding last election
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue – likely a 4-way split riding with all 4 main parties in contention
Sainte-Rose – over the CAQ, likely the only riding that the CAQ could win nearest Montreal
Sherbrooke – again, likely a 4 way split riding
The Liberals could still lose the following ridings, but the projected margins of victory are more comfortable between 3 to 10 points.
Huntingdon – over the CAQ
Jean Talon – over the CAQ
Ungava – over the PQ, more distantly the CAQ
The Parti-Quebecois is facing an historic defeat in the 5 decades of its’ existence, however it can still count on a base level of support of an estimated 7 constituencies in traditionally separatist-friendly territory, in the lower St. Lawrence and Lac St. Jean/North Shore regions.
In the Laurentides/Monteregie regions closer to Montreal, the PQ is looking at 6 losses very likely to occur in the following ridings, all to the CAQ.
Rousseau
St. Jean
St. Jerome
Sanguinet
Terrebonne
Vachon
Likewise, in the same general vicinity of the province, the PQ are looking at 7 more likely losses, with a margin of between 3 – 10%, again, all to the CAQ, (except the very remote change of the QS picking up Taschereau in Quebec City instead of the CAQ).
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Richelieu
Taillon
Taschereau
Vercheres
Unfortunately for the PQ, none of their losses are projected to be by a margin smaller than 3%, which makes it quite probable that they will have less than 20 seats after Monday’s vote.
They are expected to narrowly retain 5 ridings with less than a 3 percentage margin.
Pointe Aux Trembles and Rosemont, in east Montreal, are expected to be tight races with the QS but where the PQ are projected to prevail overall.
Chicoutimi, Joliette and Marie-Victorin, all considered traditional separatist-friendly territory, are projected to remain with the PQ in the face of strong challenges from the CAQ.
Finally, the PQ might comfortably retain the following ridings, but with a margin of less than 10%, mostly in the northern or Lac St. Jean regions.
Abitibi Ouest – longtime incumbent Francois Gendron retiring after nearly 42 years, the CAQ and, to a lesser extent, the Liberals might gain the riding
Bourget – in eastern Montreal – the CAQ is expected to perform well here and is seen as equally likely to gain the riding as the QS, although currently projected to be a comfortable PQ win.
Duplessis – comfortable PQ win projected over Liberals, CAQ coming in strong third
Jonquiere – projected PQ win by 4 points over CAQ
Thus, the bottom line appears that the Liberals and PQ will retrench to their traditional strongholds as they would during their time out of power – the CAQ are poised to make significant gains in southern, rural Quebec, around the outskirts of greater Montreal in the Laurentides/Monteregie and in Quebec City. The QS is projected to build on their strength in eastern Montreal and mount strong, if long shot races for Taschereau, Sherbrooke and Rimouski.
This election will showcase both the strengths and weaknesses of all parties.
The Liberals will consistently demonstrate, (by virtue of language and propensities towards federalism, if nothing else), a floor of around 40 seats and 30 percent of the vote, but with only getting a projected 20% of the francophone vote, are limited in terms of gains outside the Montreal and Ottawa River regions. Low polling in particular in the growing Laurentides region outside of Montreal may portend to longer term structural problems in the future.
The Parti Quebecois, beset by a split in the sovereigntist vote with the QS, will fall back to reliable pockets of support in the Lac St. Jean/North Shore/Lower St. Lawrence regions and will struggle to retain a footing in Montreal. QS will struggle for viability outside of eastern Montreal, despite coming close to the PQ in popular vote overall. While it has been attempted to unite the two parties, it remains to be seen if united they can make inroads in the CAQ-held territory where the electorate has, by many accounts, wearied of the sovereignty project.
The CAQ, meanwhile, has gained in most of the rural, southern areas outside of Montreal, including in the critical suburban/exurban ring around the city where the PQ has traditionally fared well. However, apart from one or two ridings in the Laval/Montreal area, they are not rated as having a change at many seats in the area, which could dampen their prospects for a strong majority, if any majority at all. It remains to be seen if a centre-right party can make headway in Montreal without modifying a number of items in their platform (federally right-of-centre parties have been completely shut out of Montreal over the past 3 decades).
In conclusion, then, Quebec appears to be split into three separate voting blocs – the core federalist/Liberal vote; the centrist or centre-right francophone vote which has disavowed the traditional Liberal/PQ choices and the core separatist vote, split between the PQ and the QS. Arguably the PQ and the QS could reunify and make additional headway in several constituencies, most likely at the expense of the CAQ, but unless the sovereigntist project is once again slated to hold wider sway with francophone voters, they too will encounter their own ceiling. It may not be too long to discern the emergent trends in Quebec provincial politics – if Legault does end up with a minority it will be likely less than two years before the next election, if past minority governments in Quebec are any indication.