The first week of Canada’s 2019 election campaign has already gone by, and there really appears to be no essential change in the electoral landscape. The Liberals are tied with the Conservatives – most polls showing a slight lead for one or the other party within the margin of error. This is seen as favoring the Liberals, with greater vote efficiency in Central Canada, (smaller margins of victory) whereas the Conservatives can expect more lopsided margins in the western provinces.
This is not to say that things can change, indeed the Liberals, having the edge in projected seats, have the greater risk of losing ground, particularly the seat-rich 905 suburban ring around Toronto which will likely prove critical in the next government’s formation.
Several developments that might have some bearing on the election campaign include the inclusion of Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party in upcoming leaders’ debates, which could adversely impact Conservative vote share (especially in very marginal Ontario seats); the other significant event was today’s revelation that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had donned a brownface costume while a teacher at a British Columbia private school back in 2001. This could adversely affect the Liberals, who have insinuated that the Conservatives have recruited some questionable candidates and raised the issue of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer’s previous opposition to same sex marriage back in 2005. With this latest revelation, the Liberals could find themselves on the defensive and their attacks on the Conservative’s perceived lack of inclusiveness could fall flat. Should this gain additional traction, it is probably more likely that potential Liberal vote losses would result either from migration to the other left-of-centre parties or depressed voter turnout rather than a ground swell of support to the Conservatives.
The underlying dynamics still strongly support a Liberal win, however, as a majority government in it’s first term has in Canadian political history seldom been denied the chance to continue with a second mandate, even if in a minority position. For all of the recent tarnishing of the Liberal, and more specifically – Trudeau brand, Scheer has thus far not been able to decisively run away with the race on the question on who would make the best Prime Minister. The Conservative brand has not been able to move ahead, in part because of the underlying dynamics to support an incumbent government, and also in part due to the unpopularity of Ontario’s current PC Premier, Doug Ford.
The latest revelations about Trudeau’s brownface soiree nearly two decades ago will undoubtedly make the race more interesting, and potentially much closer, but there is still a lot of campaigning left, and more opportunity for other leaders to make their own gaffes. In Canadian politics many elections have been won not by one’s strength but by one’s opponent’s weaknesses. Nearly five weeks in an election campaign can be an eternity.
Next week we will have available a detailed riding map projecting our winners based on polls, and in subsequent weeks those forecasts will be updated until the week before the election.