The second week in the Canadian election campaign might have been overshadowed by goings-on in London and Washington. Indeed, the campaign needle did not move much in Canada, with apparently minimal fallout over the blackface/brownface revelations.

The Liberals remain the party to beat in Central Canada, which will prove critical in the overall election’s outcome. While my model had some adjustments, slightly trending more Liberal as last week I tried to factor in some fallout over the revelations against the Prime Minister, it essentially remains a locked race. At most 30-40 ridings remain in truly in play at this point, and unless the polls move markedly away from the Liberals it is likely not to change.

I keep thinking it will be a close enough race on election night that one commentator will wryly observe if Jody Wilson-Raybould (re-elected as an Independent) will rejoin the Liberals to keep them in power – that it will come down to one seat. Likely, however, the Liberals will be able to win a sufficiently large plurality and join forces with the NDP and Greens to maintain their hold on government.

My model is still needing some fine tuning, I believe, as I think York Region will end up being more bell weather and Liberal red than this map portrays, likewise I am thinking that around the Lac St. Jean region that there might be lighter shades of blue and Bloc sea-green than Liberal red.

The graph below shows that sheer voter efficiency in Central Canada is vital to the Liberals retaining their hold on power. As shown below, the overall percentage of the vote for victorious candidates shows that the Liberals have even a handful of seats won by less than 30% (many of them in Quebec); while few wins are over 60%. By contrast, the Conservatives are showing no wins with a candidate getting less than 30%, notably less MPs being elected with between 30-40% of the vote compared to the Liberals, and on the upper end around two dozen MPs being elected by over 60% of the vote. Therefore, even if the Conservatives edge the Liberals out in the popular vote, which many polls as well as my model suggest, it will be less efficient with wider, deeper blue margins in Western Canada, while the Liberals win on lighter shades of red in Central Canada.

At this point, my model overall is saying

Liberals – 33% and 159 Seats

Conservatives – 35.4% and 134 Seats

NDP – 14% and 26 Seats

Bloc Quebecois – 5.1% and 14 Seats

Greens – 9% and 3 Seats

People’s Party – 2% and 1 Seat (M. Bernier’s in Beauce)

and Ms. Wilson-Raybould, in Vancouver Granville, as an Independent M.P.