For someone polling barely in the low single digits in the limited Nevada polling that is available, (RealClear didn’t even have her name on their board) one wonders sometimes if it was even worth competing at all in that state’s contest if they are the only widely known, but not particularly popular candidate. Nevada is unique among states in not having a standard write-in option, but rather the infamous “None of These Candidates” option, popularly known to most as “None of the Above” (NOTC/NOTA). The previous high record for the NOTC/NOTA was just after the option’s advent in 1976, where a Republican Congressional Primary saw NOTC/NOTA at nearly 50%. Given the dynamics in play, NOTC/NOTA might surpass this with an all time record of potentially 80%, (my guess 60-80% range) against Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley. Generally losing to the NOTC/NOTA option is seen as very humiliating in Nevada politics, “an absolute slap in the face” in the words of one Nevada political science professor. In turn, this could have further ramifications down the road for Haley’s candidacy for the Republican nomination.
To see how this potential political comedy of errors came about, read on.
Nevada has historically gone back and forth between presidential primaries and caucus systems to influence the selection process of presidential candidates. The Democratic Party’s use of the primary in 1912 made the state one of the first in the nation to adopt this mode of election, although the state has switched up their selection process since that time due to a variety of practical and legal issues.
In 2008, the state adopted a caucus system, supposedly to help transition the state away from a late season primary towards being an early influencer with a caucus in the presidential nominating process. The general process of a Nevada caucus is similar to Iowa, in that throughout the state small, basically precinct-level meetings of neighbors are held and delegates are selected towards county and then the state conventions, from which national convention delegates are selected.
In 2024 the process changed yet again where the Democratic Party is having a primary on February 6th, with a Republican primary also scheduled on that day. The state’s Republican Party, however. opted at their own time and expense, to continue with the caucus system right after the primary this coming Thursday, February 8th.
Nikki Haley, Donald Trump’s main rival for the Republican nomination, is participating in the Tuesday primaries, whereas the former President is participating in Thursday’s caucuses, meaning that they are effectively avoiding a head to head contest. Only the Thursday caucuses are binding. The Republican Party has disallowed candidates from participating in more than one contest (they must chose) but voters (registered Republicans) may vote in both the primary and caucuses.
On the Democratic side, President Biden is facing author and activist Marianne Williamson in addition to a number of lesser known candidates. Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips is not on today’s ballot.
As noted at the beginning, Nevada does not allow for a write-in option but instead allows for voters to select “None of These Candidates” (a.k.a. “None of the Above”) in the primary process. If the “None of These Candidates” option wins, delegates can not be awarded to that option (i.e. uncommitted) but the result would be declared such that “None of These Candidates” was the winner, with actual candidates placing after the NOTC/NOTA option winning a share of the delegates (if the race is binding).
The overall history of “None of These Candidates” in Nevada is a whole other article, going back almost 5 decades, and is interesting for the fact that not only has that option won two times (a Republican Congressional in 1976 holding the current record of just under 50% of the votes and Democratic Gubernatorial primary more recently), it has also been seen as having played a spoiler effect, particularly one favoring incumbents. Generally the option gets around 1-3% of the vote in more conventional races.
There has been little polling for the specific votes this week, although Trump has generally commanded between 2/3rds to 3/4ths support in polls going back over the past 6 months, levels of support he had while rivals such as Ron DeSantis were still in the race, seen as his main challenger for Nevada delegates.
On the Democratic side, Biden would do well to get 90% support, roughly commensurate with support in South Carolina but also considering the independent lean of many voters here. (A Nevada voter has to declare a party to participate in a primary, but if voting in person, one can do that on the same day as voting. The Republican caucuses are somewhat more restrictive with deadlines for party declarations and participation.) Anything below 80% might suggest more disenchantment with Biden’s candidacy, where some combination of NOTC/NOTA and Williamson support exceeds 20%.
Early polling suggests that while there is broad interest in both parties’ races, there is limited information with which to compare Biden’s and Trump’s performances this year with their respective 2020 and 2016 performances to capture such metrics as enthusiasm/engagement, probably the one measurable from February’s races that might portend this coming November, since Biden and Trump primary wins here are largely a foregone conclusion.
While Trump is focused on the caucuses, many Republican voters, among them Governor Joe Lombardo have expressed interest in supporting the NOTC/NOTA option in the primary today and then supporting the former president on Thursday in the caucuses. Most likely Trump will surpass 90%, given that his only other main rival is pastor Ryan Binkley, who has similar to Haley barely registered in any of the Nevada polls.
In the end, the real story with the Nevada contests this month might be Haley losing decisively to NOTC/NOTA in the Republican Primary, setting an all time record level of support for NOTC/NOTA and calling into question the wisdom of her staying in the race until her home state, South Carolina on February 24th, where she also trails Trump around 2 to 1. It is true that South Carolina has a markedly different political culture than Nevada and the impacts of the record NOTC/NOTA showing might have little sway on voters in the Palmetto State. But it is equally true that being the candidate most decisively defeated by NOTC/NOTA in its entire 50-year history is not a record or designation the Haley camp needs as it struggles to find momentum going forward. And in future years where the former Governor and UN Ambassador may decide to run for office again, it is debatable how much of a rout the Governor can sustain on her home turf this year and still be politically viable in those future races. The more incredible factor, in my mind, is how her advisors and handlers evidently missed the risk that she might endure a humiliating defeat in a non-binding vote, that even if she had won, would have gained exactly zero delegates.
On the strip in Las Vegas, I imagine it would be hard to find a professional gambler who would have made a comparable bet.
Update: This post is being finalized as results from Nevada are already coming in. As expected, President Biden is decisively winning the Democratic Primary with around 90% of the vote, indicating that consistent with New Hampshire and South Carolina, there is little appetite to do anything other than renominate him. On the Republican side, Haley is losing about 2 to 1 against the NOTC/NOTA option and news outlets are predictably using words such as ‘humiliating‘ and ‘embarrassing‘ which might contribute to ending her presidential bid before South Carolina. Please note posts completed and posted after polls closing generally do not count towards my prediction record.